Will China’s Demographics Constrain Its Foreign Policy?

There have been many articles on China’s drastic demographic shift, but the focus on international behavior that could affect or even limit is reduced. Let me highlight some key topics.

First, the nature of population transfer is obvious. I’ve written it before China has limited response to the problem as well as Continuous deterioration This makes the problem accumulate. In other words, this is getting worse and the efforts made by the government to mitigate this situation are largely insufficient.

The data is clear: China’s total fertility rate in 2024 is about 1.1, about half of the 2.1 replacement level required for population stability. Similarly, in 2023, the population fell by about 2 million. Granted, this number is moderate against the backdrop of 1.4 billion people, but the long-term trend is eye-catching: Shanghai College of Social Sciences– Not known for being pessimistic, it is a low-end situation, with China’s population falling to 525 million by 2100.

This is a clear downward trend, but what is the significance? What does it matter if China’s population declines by more than 50%? As far as China’s economy is concerned, automation and labor upgrades will offset most or all of the decline. Ironically, despite population headwinds, China’s economy will still perform well in the near term.

So, the decline in population may not be its own impact, and perhaps it has no economic significance in the short term – but will it affect China’s foreign policy?

Let’s explore four possible meanings:

1. Military Recruitment
this US Department of Defense It is estimated that the People’s Liberation Army has more than 2 million figures. This shows a double tightening: First, China will need to increase recruitment incentives as the youth population decreases. Second, a more technically significant military means that wages exceed those in the private sector must be provided. PLA requirements will not be met by recruiting average high school graduates alone. Why should talented young coders join the military when the private sector pays more?

2. Military budget
As personnel costs rise faster than procurement costs, China may face the effect of crowding, while funds for people means less of the equipment. This is one of the reasons why PLA invests in drones and cyber warfare. If China can ban Taiwan’s banking system, the Internet and the power grid, the new aircraft carrier will become less urgent. Cyber capabilities will not completely replace traditional military assets, but they allow PLAs to more effectively balance technology and traditional power.

3. Nearby abroad
China’s population pressure must be considered along with similar trends in East Asia. The population of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan has dropped sharply. Based on shrinking demographics, a strategic disadvantage is projected to China, and this regional background can be ignored.

4. PLA theory
The most important reason why population disruptions do not immediately change international behavior is the durable nature of the PLA doctrine. The PLA believes its mission is to protect China’s sovereignty and believes that this can only be achieved by maintaining military advantages with neighboring countries. This has become a state religion, and it is an ideological problem. PLA’s appetite for growth seems to be open-ended. Before this change occurs, it may take decades of population decline.

All in all, China’s population contraction has far-reaching impacts. It raises questions about how citizens accept government issues regarding prosperity and progress. But in foreign policy, restrictions may not be immediate. Nevertheless, under the weight of population pressure, the nature of China’s international behavior and military participation may still develop in subtle ways. In the long run, increased costs and lower options may limit behavior.