Dr. Kopper is unhappy with the health of his patients and the global economy, refusing to get out of bed and predicting slower economic growth next year.
Copper has long been viewed as an economically prognostic metal because it is used in everything from electronics to pipes, from construction to most transportation, and rising copper prices can serve as a reliable guide to economic expansion.
Cleaning copper plates at the Escondidas electrolysis plant in Chile. Oliver Lanessa … [+]
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The flip side of copper’s predictive power is that falling prices are also a reliable indicator of slow growth.
Copper prices are currently flat at around $4.18 a pound, down 18% from a high of $5.10 a pound hit seven months ago.
According to the latest batch of investment bank forecasts, the trend is for prices to continue falling and could fall to around $3.72/lb by this time next year.
Citigroup said earlier this week that it expected copper prices to average $3.97/lb ($8,750/ton) in 2025, down sharply from its previous forecast of $4.65/lb next year.
Trade war concerns
Copper prices have been pressured by concerns about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war, which looms as both sides threaten to impose higher tariffs, boosting prices and dampening demand.
Swiss investment bank UBS echoed Citigroup’s theme, telling clients that the outlook for commodities has worsened since last month due to trade war concerns and a weak economic stimulus plan by the Chinese government.
UBS said that “a less favorable macro backdrop would generally not be favorable to Dr. Copper,” while sticking to its forecast for copper prices to average $4.25/lb in the first quarter of next year, rising to $4.50/lb in the June quarter.
Test copper coil
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UBS believes that copper prices are expected to rise later next year as supply tightens, although demand maintains but does not accelerate.
Australia’s Macquarie Bank said this week it would lower its copper price forecast for next year by 6% to $3.92/lb.
The price cuts were attributed to slower demand growth and increased supply.
Macquarie’s latest forecast is that demand will slow to 2.4% annually from its previous forecast of 3.4% growth, while supply is also expected to fall, although a decline in supply from 5.4% to 4% will still leave the copper market with a modest surplus.
After copper prices bottomed at $3.76/lb this cycle, prices are expected to recover starting in 2026 and rise to $4.31/lb in 2027 before returning to near-boom conditions in 2028, when prices are expected to average $5.22/lb.
“The biggest uncertainty on the supply outlook is the restart of the Cobre Panama mine in Panama, which is likely to start in the fourth quarter of next year,” Macquarie said.
